On Dec. 30, Metaplanet Inc. raised its fiscal 2025 Bitcoin income business revenue forecast after reporting a sharp fourth quarter jump driven by derivatives. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price moved toward a historically rare oversold reading versus a global liquidity model, a setup that has appeared only a few times in its trading history. The updated outlook now calls for 8.58 billion yen in full year revenue, well above the prior 6.3 billion yen estimate.

Bitcoin briefly rose past $90,000 before retreating toward the high $88,000s as liquidations hit both sides; Bull Theory on X cited about $103 million in shorts cleared during a late Sunday surge and roughly $40 million in long positions during the subsequent drop into Monday. CoinCodex's 365‑day model projects Bitcoin near $83,350 by December 2026, while Ethereum's forecast rises to about $4,768, implying roughly a 61% gain.

In Q4 2025, Ethereum smart contract deployments climbed to 8.7 million, setting a new quarterly record for on-chain activity. At the same time, one analyst's short-term Elliott Wave view highlighted $3,143 as an initial price objective after ETH reclaimed the $3,000 area. The combination of rising development metrics and a defined technical target underscored both network usage and a key resistance zone into year end.

CME FedWatch data indicate that ahead of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, markets assign a 17.7% chance of a rate cut to the 325–350 basis point range and an 82.3% likelihood of rates staying at 350–375 basis points. Futures pricing shows no expectation of a hike, reflecting cautious repositioning rather than a clear policy signal. Crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, traded slightly higher but reacted only modestly to the shift in implied probabilities.

Ethereum is trading around $2,947 with weekly support still holding, while analysts outline support near $2,618, $2,252 and $1,818 and resistance between $3,348 and $4,619 as key zones into 2026. On the daily chart, ETH remains locked in a range around $2,940, with several potential paths including moves toward overhead resistance, retests of lower support or extended sideways action as 2026 approaches.

On Christmas, Binance’s BTC/USD1 pair briefly fell to $24,111 for about three seconds, a thin-book wick rather than a broad crash, according to Shanaka Anslem Perera. He also cited a similar Dec. 10 spike from about $96,000 to $76,000. On Friday, PlanB said Bitcoin near $87,500 sits far below stock and gold model levels at roughly $6,900 and $4,500.

Ethereum ecosystem transactions have risen sharply across multiple related networks, while technical charts highlight a possible weekly inverse head and shoulders structure and price trading near key moving averages. The asset now sits below its 50 day SMA and around its 200 day SMA, with RSI near neutral, indicating consolidation as traders watch for a potential breakout or renewed downside.

In late 2025, on-chain data indicated that Bitcoin holders with 100–1,000 BTC sharply increased their balances, while BTC’s price moved sideways between $85,000 and $92,000 after dropping from above $110,000. Over the same six-month span, gold gained about 38% and silver roughly 107%, contrasting with Bitcoin’s 17% decline despite its market capitalization remaining near $1.8 trillion.

BlackRock expects only measured Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026 as policy moves toward neutral. The December 2025 dot plot shows a median path from about 3.6 percent in 2025 to roughly 3.4 percent in 2026, implying one to two 25 bp cuts. The firm's baseline centers on 25–50 bp of easing, conditional on incoming data.