Bitcoin has not yet flashed three indicators that have often coincided with bear-market bottoms, including reclaiming the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, per analyst Willy Woo. The STH cohort is defined as buyers from the past 155 days, and their average breakeven is cited around $81,000, leaving recent holders with more than a 14% unrealized loss. Bitcoin ended last week below $67,000 and later rebounded to about $69,500 to start Monday.

Ethereum fell nearly 5% over the past 24 hours after briefly reclaiming $2,150 and then sliding back near $2,000. Derivatives positioning shifted ahead of the move, with a 7.1% increase in ETH open interest on Wednesday. More than $94 million in ETH positions were liquidated over the past day, while Bitcoin saw $83.8 million.

Bitcoin’s average deposit size sent to centralized exchanges rose sharply, with the mean Exchange Inflow reaching 2.62 BTC. The move is described as an uncommon level that has historically shown up during stressed market conditions, while BTC was last noted trading around $68,500.

Glassnode said smaller Bitcoin holder cohorts shifted into distribution during the latest upswing, based on its Wallet Size Accumulation Trend Score. The <1 BTC and 1–10 BTC groups moved into heavy selling as BTC pushed toward $76,000, while the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort only slightly crossed above neutral. BTC later traded around $66,700 after a pullback.

XRP derivatives open interest climbed over the past day while spot price weakened, suggesting traders added fresh positions after the pullback. The broader market also saw $450 million in liquidations, including about $401 million from long positions, as XRP fell to the $1.33 level.

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s Realized Price—the network’s average cost basis—is currently around $54,000, a level BTC historically revisited or stayed below during prior bear markets. The firm noted BTC has remained above this metric since breaking through it at the end of the 2022 bear market, while short-term holders are underwater with their realized price above spot. Bitcoin was trading near $68,400 at the time of the update.

Santiment says Bitcoin's Whale Transaction Count has recently fallen, indicating reduced activity from large holders. The metric tracks daily BTC transfers above $100,000 and is now at 6,417, the lowest since September 2023, while $1 million+ transfers have dropped to 1,485, the lowest since October 2024. Bitcoin also dipped under $68,000 earlier before rebounding to $70,800.

Ethereum has rebounded above $2,100 even as the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory. The indicator sat at -0.0149 over the past day, suggesting ETH traded at a discount on Coinbase versus Binance and implying comparatively weaker buying demand from Coinbase users. ETH was around $2,160 at the time of writing, down 7% over the past week.

Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply increased over the past month even as price action stayed weak. The 30-day net position change for LTHs is at +332,600 BTC, while Bitcoin trades around $68,500, down more than 6% over the last week.