Prediction markets are signaling heightened April 2026 geopolitical risk, with odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by month-end falling from 76.5% to about 10%. Separate oil contracts show 76.5% expect WTI to top $120, including 53.5% pricing $130 and nearly a third projecting $140+. The shift suggests traders are positioning for continued disruption and near-term volatility across risk assets, including crypto.

Bitcoin continued to edge lower as traders rebuilt derivatives exposure while spot demand weakened. Analysts cited three consecutive days of BTC moving back onto exchanges, rising open interest, and a return to negative funding as signs of cautious positioning. They also pointed to a deeper negative Coinbase Premium versus a positive Korea Premium as evidence of regional demand divergence.