A Bitcoin on-chain gauge tracking short‑term holders has fallen to its deepest oversold level since 2018, a zone historically associated with cycle troughs. Past signals were followed by a roughly 150% one‑year rebound and a 1,900% three‑year advance, while a separate projection sees up to $150 billion entering risk assets by the end of March 2026.

Bernstein's recent outlook says Bitcoin could still reach $150,000 by end‑2026 if key conditions align. BTC needs to hold above its 200‑week SMA, see new‑investor flows turn positive, watch USDT dominance retreat, address quantum‑risk concerns, and benefit from additional Fed rate cuts in 2026, with CME pricing implying at least two.

In February, USDT’s market share revisited the 8.50%–9.00% band that previously aligned with Bitcoin’s bear‑market lows, according to TradingView. The same signal is appearing again in 2026, while BTC’s weekly RSI dipped below 30 and price rebounded near the 200‑week SMA, improving odds of a near‑term bottom around $60,000.

Bitcoin fell more than 40% over the past month to a year-to-date low of $59,930 on Friday, over 50% below its October 2025 peak near $126,200. Analysts highlight leveraged Hong Kong options trades tied to IBIT, banks’ structured-note hedging, and miner cost lines around $58,160–$72,700 as factors that could pressure price near $60,000.

According to the analysis, as of Wednesday Ether entered the breakdown phase of an inverse cup‑and‑handle, putting a February move toward $1,665–$1,725 in play. Chartswatcher reports an 82% hit rate for this setup’s downside targets, while Glassnode’s MVRV bands highlight support near $1,725, implying risk of a print below $2,000.

As of January, estimated electricity and all-in production costs to mine one BTC are about $59,450 and $74,300, while Bitcoin traded near $82,500 on Friday. A recent drop in hash rate and a reported miner pullback point to downside toward that cost band, though prior cycles have seen rebounds toward an energy-value fair price around $120,950.

In January 2026, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped beneath its long-term Power Law band and the 200-2W EMA level that had previously aligned with Bitcoin’s major dollar-denominated lows. This move came as gold rallied beyond $5,000 and large banks projected further gains toward $6,000 by year-end, while some analysts warned Bitcoin could fall under $50,000 after peaking near $126,200 in October 2025. A potential reversal in gold’s uptrend later in 2026 could ease pressure on BTC/XAU and reopen the path to price targets around $140,000.

Bitcoin has previously fallen about 30% from local highs during Japanese yen intervention periods before rebounding by more than 100%, a pattern some market participants are watching as talk of renewed JPY action grows. Analysts warn BTC could slide toward the $65,000–$70,000 zone if this fractal repeats, while onchain indicators such as NUPL and delta growth rate still point to an incomplete bottoming process.

The gap between long- and short-dated US government bond yields has reached its widest level since 2021, raising concerns about Bitcoin's performance heading into 2026. Strategists warn that Japan's record 30-year yield and gold's recent strength, alongside higher long-term Treasury rates, could weigh on high-beta assets such as BTC around key price levels.