In December, the Federal Reserve's dot plot showed disagreement on 2026 policy, while the Dec. 10 move lowered the target range to 3.5%–3.75%. According to CME Group, investors see a 20% chance of a 25 bp cut in January and 45% in mid-March, with analysts debating one to two cuts and potential impacts on crypto flows.

Glassnode said on Tuesday that the 30-day SMA of net flows for US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs has been negative since early November, signaling muted institutional participation. Coinglass reported four straight trading days of aggregate Bitcoin ETF outflows, while the Kobeissi Letter cited $952 million leaving crypto funds last week. BlackRock's IBIT still drew minor inflows and totals $62.5 billion since inception.

Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn stated on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000 in October equates to $99,848 when converted into 2020 dollars, leaving it just under the six-figure threshold. He based this figure on cumulative Consumer Price Index changes since 2020, as U.S. inflation has eroded the dollar’s purchasing power while the Dollar Currency Index has fallen 11% since the start of 2025.

According to the Financial Times, Tether-majority-owned Northern Data sold its Bitcoin mining subsidiary Peak Mining for up to $200 million to three companies controlled by Tether executives. The sale, first disclosed without naming buyers in November, occurred shortly before video platform Rumble agreed to acquire Northern Data and is intertwined with a 610 million euro loan and large advertising and GPU deals between Tether and Rumble.

Kaspersky reported on Thursday that a Windows-targeting infostealer dubbed 'Stealka' is spreading via video game cheats, mods, and pirated software. Distributed through GitHub, SourceForge, and Google Sites, it harvests autofill and extension data from over 100 Chromium- and Gecko-based browsers and threatens 115 extensions and 80 crypto wallets.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to $2.93 trillion in late Thursday trading, its lowest level since April and erasing this year's gains. Analysts pointed to a roughly 33% decline from the early October peak near $4.4 trillion and almost 14% losses year-to-date, with several expecting more short-term downside despite a recent 2.3% rebound in Bitcoin. Sentiment data showed fear dominating retail traders, even as some market observers framed the pullback as a potential accumulation window for stronger projects.

Bitwise stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's price swings in 2025 were milder than Nvidia's and projected that this lower volatility will persist in 2026. The firm linked Bitcoin's maturing profile to a decade-long decline in volatility, growing institutional participation, ETF products and a more diversified investor base, while also forecasting a new all-time high and continued outperformance of crypto-related equities over tech stocks.

Lightning Network capacity climbed to new highs as major exchanges funded channels, with 5,606 BTC on Monday and 5,637 BTC (about $490 million) on Tuesday. Lightning Labs updated Taproot Assets to v0.7, adding reusable addresses, an auditable supply, and larger transactions, while Tether led an $8 million round to enable stablecoin payments on LN.

Over the past three months, Bitcoin declined about 26% but still held up better than most major crypto sectors, including Ether, AI tokens, memecoins and real-world asset tokens. Several analysts say the figures highlight a market where capital remains concentrated in BTC, which many investors currently treat as a relatively safer option within the crypto space.